Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Sunday, December 22, 2013
Letter to the President and DOTC Secretary
Open Letter to His Excellency Benigno Simeon Aquino III,
President of the Philippines
and Honorable Joseph Emilio Abaya, Secretary
Department of Transportation and Communications
Dear President Aquino and Secretary Abaya:
Between 1989-1990, we began the advocacy for a Philippine safety agency that led to the passage of the Republic Act to create the NTSB - National Transportation Safety Board.
Shown below is the reconstruction of the briefing on the need to operationalize the National Transportation Safety Board. We revised the briefing over and over again. The updating of the voluminous data on accidents over land, to include actuarial and statistical computations of the probabilities of new accidents for extended, extrapolated periods, is not included since it would be too tasking for us and we do not have the resources nor are equipped any longer to undertake the job.
In the past, we were fortunate to be working with a foreign counterpart - the Harris Corporation Florida USA, a conglomerate with over 100 companies under its wings, that allowed us to opportunity to campaign for the privatization of the then Air Transportation Office's ATS (Air Traffic Service) as well as to push for the creation of the Philippines' transport safety agency.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
Global Geohazards System
Crisis Mapping
In 2008 we determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and the government on the other. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, we resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.
This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peacekeeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.
After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people.
Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:
Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:
Changed Parameters
One year later, the entire universe for the crisis mapping project had changed. It cannot be called a drastic change since the new directions fell within range of long-held advocacies and persistent efforts. We had began such efforts by provoking officials at the Department of National Defense to modernize.
Among the sources for concepts and ideas of our papers given to the department was an executive formerly engaged as part of a service provider group at a Saudi Arabia military base. The Saudi military and government, thanks to their foreign high-tech service providers in the late 80s were already advanced in the use of GIS, the digitization of all documents, exploiting satellite information among many things.
With various other inputs from visiting colleagues, the advocacy for a fully functional satellite research, GPS and GIS-ready system was pushed at defense department, the National Security Council and at the Department of Transportation and Communications through the suggestion of the administrative officer of the defense secretary.
A large number of milestones were achieved in all of these, one of which was the formulation of the 10-year framework for aerospace concerns and civil aviation development in the Philippines. Ultimately this led to the privatization of the Air Transportation Office that is now the more corporate-run Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines.
Another is the passing of the enabling law for the National Transport Safety Board - patterned from the NTSB model of the United States. Many other small accomplishments were also made along the way, until the shift of our mindset from conflicts mapping into environmental or geohazards mapping. On both these milestones, a company in the United States was the most instrumental of all and provided all the support needed.
Hazards Mapping
That year in 2009 following the terrorist siege at Sulu Province where staff of the International Committee on the Red Cross were abducted by well-connected civilians that turned over the victims to the Juma'a Abu Sayyap for higher stakes in ransom collections, the need for crisis mapping was overshadowed by the critical want for forecasting natural (or even human-made) catastrophes.
While it cannot be discounted that the fighting vs. terror is a universal concern, that political conflicts leading to war is a serious matter, it had to be conceded that disasters ruled the day. When we were running after the terrorists in Sulu Province, one of the laughable incidents was overrunning several camps of the Abu Sayyap simply because they were watching over the boxing match of Manny Pacquiao. You can never do that in a disaster.
When strong rains arrived in Sulu, selected Abu Sayyaf terrorists went down from their lairs pretending to be civilians and acted like very well-behaved refugees in the evacuation centers. Thus it was decided, the shift from conflict flashpoints, crisis mapping will be done in favor of geohazards mapping. (In Quezon Province and Mindoro, among other places, the Philippine communists do the same.
After a considerable number of people died in various disasters in the Philippines, beginning at the time with tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy), the firm resolve was to transpose all the efforts into a full-scale undertaking to coordinate data, cooperate with neighboring countries on valuable inputs, technology, earth observation, seismologic and volcanology information.
Most especially also, to come up with the definitive integrated map of the Geohazard System from earth observation and other sources to help guide in providing more accurate, timely and well-founded policy, decisions and execution thereof for the sake of disaster readiness.
Above all, to be able to provide credible bulletins, advisories and warnings to the public that whether believed by the receiver, are enough for authorities to haul off potential calamity victims to safer grounds - even with the use of benign force.
This effort in its entirety seeks to define new paradigms and strategies to enhance environmental hazards mitigation and prevent losses from disasters.
It aims to see to the welfare of populations vulnerable to geohazards such raging flash floods and stampede of debris (Ondoy 2009, Ormoc flash flood 1991, Cagayan de Oro flash floods 2011), powerful storm surges (Yolanda 2013), earthquakes (Bohol 2013, Baguio 1990), volcanoes (Pinatubo 1991), landslides, and tsunamis.
Global Geohazard System
There is a need to develop better approaches to mapping the risks and dangers to communities in the Philippines – correlating such risks with hazards in other neighboring or even fairly distant countries that are linked with Philippines within the world geohazard system (WGS) or global geohazard system.
Like water that seeks its own level, most if not all, geologic and hydrologic risks, among other environmental hazards, have a way of interconnecting - in the sense that the world is chopped up into a whole lot of boundaries while such hazards challenge these boundaries.
A fault like the Philippine fault might be known to lie across the length of the Philippine archipelago but it is connected to Taiwan in the north and if you further examine the same from the perspective of tectonic plates, you will note that you will reach both ends of the world from different routes just tracing interconnections between the tectonic plates - that all have a bearing on nearly every seismologic activity anywhere in the globe.
One of the minor reasons for the shift was our discovering that the organizers of the highly valuable 3rd International Geohazards Workshop in 2007 did not invite the Philippines. While other very extensive gatherings were held later where the Philippines was represented, it must be said that the value of that conference by the ESA-NASA et al in Italy cannot be discounted.
Discussions on earth observation could help Philippine scientists technology experts, among those of other countries, as well as closely network the developing countries' geohazard specialists with the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites that have the ultimate capacity of providing ground penetrating data about seismologic events, or even unnatural potential hydrologic threats, space data on tropical storms, typhoons and so on.
Call for international cooperation, sharing
Now that we have firmed up our resolve not to dwell on political crisis and conflicts, we extend our hand as far out in invitation to all members of the scientific community, developers and providers of technology for geohazard mapping, outer space activity specialists, earth observation networks, to help us stage the first international geohazards mapping and environment summit in Manila, Philippines from the first to the second week of December 2014.
It is sought that the kind support of CEOS and its member agencies will be available so that all aspects of discussions and working meetings will be more meaningful.
Among the best of the best in the community of geohazard experts, it is hoped that brothers and sisters geohazard specialists of Malaysia will not be last to respond to our call, because we believe that they ought to come to the conference we are moving heaven and earth to accomplish.
Our conference site on the web is still under construction at this time, but we hope to have it ready by January 2014. We have brainstormed a set of topics upon which sharing with experts will be done. We invite all those interested to prepare papers closest to their hearts however, without us limiting their breadth of knowledge and experience in their selected areas of expertise.
We hope to see you in December 2014 in Manila and believe that there is always a way for all kinds of points to connect when the stimuli is present. In our case, the stimuli we can best provide is the best of the best of Filipino hospitality and genius in improvisations.
Acknowledgments:
Some, but not all of those that gave us inspiration and support for this undertaking are most heartily thanked for whatever contributions were obtained from them, in one way or another. These institutions are listed below, not in any kind of order. We will provide a more complete list during the conference proper in 2014.
Saudi Arabia Royal Air Force, Ministry of Defence
Climate Change, Disaster, Ecology, Environment hazards,Forecasting, Geohazards, Mapping, killer quake, earth observation, earthquake, earthquake faults, flood, GGS, Global, hydrology, imagery, information, liquefaction, mapping, Mt. Pinatubo, Ondoy, public warning, satellite,seismology, storm surge, tidal wave, tsunami, typhoon, volcano, WGS, World geohazards system, Yolanda
Safety on the Road
Recently, one of the buses of Don Mariano Transit figured in an accident where it is reported that 18 people died (see photo below).
Photo Credit: Manila Bulletin, December 16, 2013 by Michael Varcas
The attention of everyone, especially our government officials, is most earnestly called towards past proposals, suggestions, recommendations, encouragement, admonitions, for making transport safety a key concern of the public sector.
At this time, whether or not the Philippine Government under Pres. Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino the 3rd will listen to all these unsolicited advice will be the determinant of the future of public safety on the streets of the country, sea and ocean lanes, and the Philippine air ways.
One of the hundreds of proposals on transport safety became a certified legislation of the Ramos Administration in 1994-1995. It was an executive order draft that instead was forwarded with strong endorsement by former President Fidel V. Ramos to the two houses of Congress to be made into Law due to the inclusion of a component providing for changes in users' fees and charges in the transportation industry.
Because Congress holds the power of the purse and is the only one mandated to create taxes, fees and charges that will be levied upon the public, Congress was the last stop of the proposal for transport safety. Under the late Pres. Corazon Aquino, the same proposal was submitted to Malacanang because of the need for a Philippine council on Safety - or any kind of agency concerned with Safety in general.
If we look at our Philippine Government's structure, there is a myriad of government units, offices, bureaus on safety. From the Department of Labor, Health, National Defense, Transportation and Communications, and the list goes on and on. Despite this however, or because of too many duplicating functions, there is a seeming confusion as to who will be responsible for this and that concern on Safety.
Hundreds of world, international, regional Conventions, conferences and Workshops are held all over the the globe on Safety. The United Nations, cognizant of the value and importance of the universal concern of Safety, has elevated its status consistently from low to a very high Category under the UN Structure.
Therefore a single agency, unifying at least a wide array of safety concerns and lessening the duplication and conflicts of functions of too many agencies under the bureaucracy was proposed.
Out of these proposals, at least one was favored to become law: the National Transport Safety Board (NTSB) Act that came about due to the strong wording by Malacanang stating that the proposed law was part of its certified legislative agenda for the period. More > >
Themes: Safety, Transportation, United Nations
Advocacy articles on transport safety past by title and tagline:
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Speeding and Bad Road Structure
Yahoo: CCTV shows Don Mariano Transit speeding before tragedy
From yahoo.com, a video shows that the killer bus owned by the Don Mariano Transit that took 18 lives of its passengers was on a speeding frenzy prior to the accident, the report says.
The authorities reviewing the video say the bus was running at more than 100 kilometers per hour while at the point of the accident the speed limit was only 80 kilometers per hour.
Bad road design and structure in RP
A comment by "A Yahoo User" on the video sourced from ANC, says thus:
if one where to look closely at the footage, one can see that there was water in the path of the bus. What does this mean? I believe that the swerving may be the cause of hydroplaning.that and the speed of the bus i believe could be the main causes of the bus falling
By design, the coupling of speeding vehicles and bad road designs and structures that are common in poor or developing countries are a mortal combination. Compounded with dilapidated vehicle features and parts - that as claimed by the Skyway administration was evident in the Don Mariano Transit bus unit's totally bald tires with treads wholly worn away - the accident was bound to happen.
In the face of burgeoning mishaps not only in the Metro Manila but in other areas of the country due to accidents like the Don Mariano Transit bus' plunge into the netherworld, government must be concerned not only with the implementation of laws, rules and regulations similar to the Congress-Senate approved National Transportation Safety Board Act but also the strictness of parameters for approving and performance-assessing the quality of the country's road network.
As our advocacy has pointed out in the past, in Tokyo, Japan, it was observed that a speeding car in a heavy downpour of rain at night, in a toll bridge, appeared to be travelling on almost dry road that was clear even to the average eye aided by vehicle lights. This is reportedly due to the fact that the structure of Tokyo's roads is characterized by multiple layers.
What is seen at the surface is only the topmost layer of the road structure. Beneath that top layer are sub-layers that are punctured with holes that gradually increase in size as the layer goes father down. At the bottom-most part of these layers water is presumably collected and diverted into pipes that go directly to storm drains.
Privatizing road network construction
Jailing bad regulators
In the Philippines, to build this kind of road would almost be an impossibility, unless road construction, like in Japan, is mostly given over to private companies who then in turn will just collect tolls from the users to be able to recover their investments. More > >
Monday, December 16, 2013
Reissuing call for Renewing Paradigms
Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.
"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."
Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has disclosed to national media that on several days prior to November 8-9, 2013, when tropical cyclone Haiyan codenamed Yolanda struck Eastern and Central Visayas, it had issued warnings about storm surge.
A weather specialist interviewed over national television sounded extremely defensive during the interview, stating in no uncertain terms that he and his agency (PAGASA), cannot and should never be blamed for not issuing warnings about the storm surge.
The Weather Philippines Foundation
On the other hand, on 9 PM November 28, 2013, a search over the internet yielded a page called SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 010 constituting findings by a private weather forecasting entity called The Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF) that stated through a written weather advisory disseminated publicly on the internet, that storm surge of up to 18 feet or 5.5 meters will hit coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas between 8-9 AM of Friday, November 8, 2013.
WPF is owned by the Aboitiz Group of Companies (owner of Aboitiz Shipping, Union Bank, etc.) and in partnership with the Meteomedia – a Swiss company established in 1990 by its owner, Jörg Kachelmann.
WPF warned that catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan. More > >
"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."
Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has disclosed to national media that on several days prior to November 8-9, 2013, when tropical cyclone Haiyan codenamed Yolanda struck Eastern and Central Visayas, it had issued warnings about storm surge.
A weather specialist interviewed over national television sounded extremely defensive during the interview, stating in no uncertain terms that he and his agency (PAGASA), cannot and should never be blamed for not issuing warnings about the storm surge.
The Weather Philippines Foundation
On the other hand, on 9 PM November 28, 2013, a search over the internet yielded a page called SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 010 constituting findings by a private weather forecasting entity called The Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF) that stated through a written weather advisory disseminated publicly on the internet, that storm surge of up to 18 feet or 5.5 meters will hit coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas between 8-9 AM of Friday, November 8, 2013.
WPF is owned by the Aboitiz Group of Companies (owner of Aboitiz Shipping, Union Bank, etc.) and in partnership with the Meteomedia – a Swiss company established in 1990 by its owner, Jörg Kachelmann.
WPF warned that catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan. More > >
Previous: Forecasting with confidence
Next: Response Effort
Photo Gallery: Public Warning Systems
Diagram of a PWS
Images of the destruction by calamities in the Philippines and in Japan
Forecasting for the future with more confidence
If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.
For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'
Self-doubting prophecy
For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.
At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.
In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.
Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.
It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely moonsoon rains, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).
What kind of weather forecasting transpired during Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) was that by 10:00 AM up to 12:00 noon, PAGASA continued to refuse to declare even a Storm Signal No. 1 for Metro Manila and Rizal Province even at the height of severe rainfall, destructive and killer floods hitting entire subdivisions in Marikina and parts of Rizal, large areas in the urban center of the national capital.
In real time, it was being recommended strongly by this site that a state of calamity and state of emergency already be declared by the Office of the President.
When the media started reporting, albeit belatedly, that some people were reportedly getting killed by Ondoy, it may have dawned on PAGASA that their forecast needed to be amended. Nearing nightfall when panic and frenzy hit the public due to massive negative reports reaching media and feedback filtering through to the lower and highest levels of government, PAGASA relented and finally announced Signal No. 1. It was too late, Malacanang was then preparing to announce a serious state of calamity for the entire Metro Manila including parts of Rizal.
Hundreds died in Provident Village in Marikina. Hundreds died inside a popular Mall at the Riverside commercial complex built beside the huge Marikina River. Still hundreds others were swept by raging waters or seriously injured by stampeding objects and died instantly or were killed by being in the flood and unable to get help for their injuries.
In real time, it was being recommended strongly by this site that a state of calamity and state of emergency already be declared by the Office of the President.
When the media started reporting, albeit belatedly, that some people were reportedly getting killed by Ondoy, it may have dawned on PAGASA that their forecast needed to be amended. Nearing nightfall when panic and frenzy hit the public due to massive negative reports reaching media and feedback filtering through to the lower and highest levels of government, PAGASA relented and finally announced Signal No. 1. It was too late, Malacanang was then preparing to announce a serious state of calamity for the entire Metro Manila including parts of Rizal.
Hundreds died in Provident Village in Marikina. Hundreds died inside a popular Mall at the Riverside commercial complex built beside the huge Marikina River. Still hundreds others were swept by raging waters or seriously injured by stampeding objects and died instantly or were killed by being in the flood and unable to get help for their injuries.
The Haiyan (Yolanda) Fiasco
If the PAGASA did actually issue a warning, albeit introvertedly and timidly, about the storm surge in coordination with the rest of government, the evidence of the storm surge warning only appears at 5:00 AM on d-day, three hours before the storm surge has hit Tacloban City on November 8, 2013 in the national disaster risk reduction agency (NDRRMC) Advisory called Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6.
Still and all, much, much earlier that day, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) already passed through Tolosa, Leyte and hit neighboring towns beginning its slew of devastations across the entire length of nine Regions of the Philippines.
The NDRRMC Bulletin stated that:
"Residents in low-lying and mountainous (sic) under signal #4, #3, and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7-meter wave height (sic)."
ACTIONS TAKEN
o NDRRMC Operations Center disseminated Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6 on Typhoon "Yolanda" to all OCD Regional Centers through SMS and facsimile and uploaded on the NDRRMC website for further dissemination to their respective local disaster risk reduction and management councils (LDRMMCs) from the provincial down to the municipal levels
o Directed RDRRMCs concerned through the OCD Regional Centers to undertake precautionary measures in their areas of responsibility (AOR) and subsequently advised local DRRMCs to initiate pre-emptive evacuation of families in low-lying and mountainous areas if situation warrants.
Had the one preparing the Severe Weather Bulletin (SWB) not merely cut and paste from one SWB to the next as can be observed in the various and different advisories issued by the NDRRMC, it must have been possible to introduce some new wording into these so-called severe bulletins. More > >
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