Showing posts with label public warning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label public warning. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Global Geohazards System

Crisis Mapping

In 2008 we determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and the government on the other. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, we resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.

This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peacekeeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.

After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people.

Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

Changed Parameters

One year later, the entire universe for the crisis mapping project had changed. It cannot be called a drastic change since the new directions fell within range of  long-held advocacies and persistent efforts. We had began such efforts by provoking officials at the Department of National Defense to modernize.

Among the sources for concepts and ideas of our papers given to the department was an executive formerly engaged as part of a service provider group at a Saudi Arabia military base. The Saudi military and government, thanks to their foreign high-tech service providers in the late 80s were already advanced in the use of GIS, the digitization of all documents, exploiting satellite information among many things.

With various other inputs from visiting colleagues, the advocacy for a fully functional satellite research, GPS and GIS-ready system was pushed at defense department, the National Security Council and at the Department of Transportation and Communications through the suggestion of the administrative officer of the defense secretary.

A large number of milestones were achieved in all of these, one of which was the formulation of the 10-year framework for aerospace concerns and civil aviation development in the Philippines. Ultimately this led to the privatization of the Air Transportation Office that is now the more corporate-run Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines.

Another is the passing of the enabling law for the National Transport Safety Board - patterned from the NTSB model of the United States. Many other small accomplishments were also made along the way, until the shift of our mindset from conflicts mapping into environmental or geohazards mapping. On both these milestones, a company in the United States was the most instrumental of all and provided all the support needed.

Hazards Mapping

That year in 2009 following the terrorist siege at Sulu Province where staff of the International Committee on the Red Cross were abducted by well-connected civilians that turned over the victims to the Juma'a Abu Sayyap for higher stakes in ransom collections, the need for crisis mapping was overshadowed by the critical want for forecasting natural (or even human-made) catastrophes.

While it cannot be discounted that the fighting vs. terror is a universal concern, that political conflicts leading to war is a serious matter, it had to be conceded that disasters ruled the day. When we were running after the terrorists in Sulu Province, one of the laughable incidents was overrunning several camps of the Abu Sayyap simply because they were watching over the boxing match of Manny Pacquiao. You can never do that in a disaster.

When strong rains arrived in Sulu, selected Abu Sayyaf terrorists went down from their lairs pretending to be civilians and acted like very well-behaved refugees in the evacuation centers. Thus it was decided, the shift from conflict flashpoints, crisis mapping will be done in favor of geohazards mapping. (In Quezon Province and Mindoro, among other places, the Philippine communists do the same.

After a considerable number of people died in various disasters in the Philippines, beginning at the time with tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy), the firm resolve was to transpose all the efforts into a full-scale undertaking to coordinate data, cooperate with neighboring countries on valuable inputs, technology, earth observation, seismologic and volcanology information.

Most especially also, to come up with the definitive integrated map of the Geohazard System from earth observation and other sources to help guide in providing more accurate, timely and well-founded policy, decisions and execution thereof for the sake of disaster readiness.

Above all, to be able to provide credible bulletins, advisories and warnings to the public that whether believed by the receiver, are enough for authorities to haul off potential calamity victims to safer grounds - even with the use of benign force.

This effort in its entirety seeks to define new paradigms and strategies to enhance environmental hazards mitigation and prevent losses from disasters.

It aims to see to the welfare of populations vulnerable to geohazards such raging flash floods and stampede of debris (Ondoy 2009, Ormoc flash flood 1991, Cagayan de Oro flash floods 2011), powerful storm surges (Yolanda 2013), earthquakes (Bohol 2013, Baguio 1990), volcanoes (Pinatubo 1991), landslides, and tsunamis.

Global Geohazard System

There is a need to develop better approaches to mapping the risks and dangers to communities in the Philippines – correlating such risks with hazards in other neighboring or even fairly distant countries that are linked with Philippines within the world geohazard system (WGS) or global geohazard system.

Like water that seeks its own level, most if not all, geologic and hydrologic risks, among other environmental hazards, have a way of interconnecting - in the sense that the world is chopped up into a whole lot of boundaries while such hazards challenge these boundaries.

A fault like the Philippine fault might be known to lie across the length of the Philippine archipelago but it is connected to Taiwan in the north and if you further examine the same from the perspective of tectonic plates, you will note that you will reach both ends of the world from different routes just tracing interconnections between the tectonic plates - that all have a bearing on nearly every seismologic activity anywhere in the globe.

One of the minor reasons for the shift was our discovering that the organizers of the highly valuable 3rd International Geohazards Workshop in 2007 did not invite the Philippines. While other very extensive gatherings were held later where the Philippines was represented, it must be said that the value of that conference by the ESA-NASA et al in Italy cannot be discounted.

Discussions on earth observation could help Philippine scientists technology experts, among those of other countries, as well as closely network the developing countries' geohazard specialists with the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites that have the ultimate capacity of providing ground penetrating data about seismologic events, or even unnatural potential hydrologic threats, space data on tropical storms, typhoons and so on.

Call for international cooperation, sharing

Now that we have firmed up our resolve not to dwell on political crisis and conflicts, we extend our hand as far out in invitation to all members of the scientific community, developers and providers of technology for geohazard mapping, outer space activity specialists, earth observation networks, to help us stage the first international geohazards mapping and environment summit in Manila, Philippines from the first to the second week of December 2014.

It is sought that the kind support of CEOS and its member agencies will be available so that all aspects of discussions and working meetings will be more meaningful.

Among the best of the best in the community of geohazard experts, it is hoped that brothers and sisters geohazard specialists of Malaysia will not be last to respond to our call, because we believe that they ought to come to the conference we are moving heaven and earth to accomplish.

Our conference site on the web is still under construction at this time, but we hope to have it ready by January 2014. We have brainstormed a set of topics upon which sharing with experts will be done. We invite all those interested to prepare papers closest to their hearts however, without us limiting their breadth of knowledge and experience in their selected areas of expertise.

We hope to see you in December 2014 in Manila and believe that there is always a way for all kinds of points to connect when the stimuli is present. In our case, the stimuli we can best provide is the best of the best of Filipino hospitality and genius in improvisations.

Acknowledgments:

Some, but not all of those that gave us inspiration and support for this undertaking are most heartily thanked for whatever contributions were obtained from them, in one way or another. These institutions are listed below, not in any kind of order. We will provide a more complete list during the conference proper in 2014.
Saudi Arabia Royal Air Force, Ministry of Defence

Themes:

Monday, December 16, 2013

Reissuing call for Renewing Paradigms

Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.

"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."


Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has disclosed to national media that on several days prior to November 8-9, 2013, when tropical cyclone Haiyan codenamed Yolanda struck Eastern and Central Visayas, it had issued warnings about storm surge.

A weather specialist interviewed over national television sounded extremely defensive during the interview, stating in no uncertain terms that he and his agency (PAGASA), cannot and should never be blamed for not issuing warnings about the storm surge.

The Weather Philippines Foundation
On the other hand, on 9 PM November 28, 2013, a search over the internet yielded a page called SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 010 constituting findings by a private weather forecasting entity called The Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF) that stated through a written weather advisory disseminated publicly on the internet, that storm surge of up to 18 feet or 5.5 meters will hit coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas between 8-9 AM of Friday, November 8, 2013.

WPF is owned by the Aboitiz Group of Companies (owner of Aboitiz Shipping, Union Bank, etc.) and in partnership with the Meteomedia – a Swiss company established in 1990 by its owner, Jörg Kachelmann.

WPF warned that catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan.  More > >

Next: Response Effort

Photo Gallery: Public Warning Systems

  
                                     Diagram of a PWS

Images of the destruction by calamities in the Philippines and in Japan








Forecasting for the future with more confidence


If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.
For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'


Self-doubting prophecy


For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.


At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.


In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.


Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.


It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely moonsoon rains, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).


What kind of weather forecasting transpired during Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) was that by 10:00 AM up to 12:00 noon, PAGASA continued to refuse to declare even a Storm Signal No. 1 for Metro Manila and Rizal Province even at the height of severe rainfall, destructive and killer floods hitting entire subdivisions in Marikina and parts of Rizal, large areas in the urban center of the national capital.

In real time, it was being recommended strongly by this site that a state of calamity and state of emergency already be declared by the Office of the President.

When the media started reporting, albeit belatedly, that some people were reportedly getting killed by Ondoy, it may have dawned on PAGASA that their forecast needed to be amended. Nearing nightfall when panic and frenzy hit the public due to massive negative reports reaching media and feedback filtering through to the lower and highest levels of government, PAGASA relented and finally announced Signal No. 1. It was too late, Malacanang was then preparing to announce a serious state of calamity for the entire Metro Manila including parts of Rizal.

Hundreds died in Provident Village in Marikina. Hundreds died inside a popular Mall at the Riverside commercial complex built beside the huge Marikina River. Still hundreds others were swept by raging waters or seriously injured by stampeding objects and died instantly or were killed by being in the flood and unable to get help for their injuries.


The Haiyan (Yolanda) Fiasco

If the PAGASA did actually issue a warning, albeit introvertedly and timidly, about the storm surge in coordination with the rest of government, the evidence of the storm surge warning only appears at 5:00 AM on d-day, three hours before the storm surge has hit Tacloban City on November 8, 2013 in the national disaster risk reduction agency (NDRRMC) Advisory called Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6.

Still and all, much, much earlier that day, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) already passed through Tolosa, Leyte and hit neighboring towns beginning its slew of devastations across the entire length of nine Regions of the Philippines.

The NDRRMC Bulletin stated that:
"Residents in low-lying and mountainous (sic) under signal #4, #3, and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7-meter wave height (sic)."
ACTIONS TAKEN 
o   NDRRMC Operations Center disseminated Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6 on Typhoon "Yolanda" to all OCD Regional Centers through SMS and facsimile and uploaded on the NDRRMC website for further dissemination to their respective local disaster risk reduction and management councils (LDRMMCs) from the provincial down to the municipal levels 
o   Directed RDRRMCs concerned through the OCD Regional Centers to undertake precautionary measures in their areas of responsibility (AOR) and subsequently advised local DRRMCs to initiate pre-emptive evacuation of families in low-lying and mountainous areas if situation warrants.
Had the one preparing the Severe Weather Bulletin (SWB) not merely cut and paste from one SWB to the next as can be observed in the various and different advisories issued by the NDRRMC, it must have been possible to introduce some new wording into these so-called severe bulletins. More > >